Business investment in the UK has fallen for five consecutive quarters – the longest decline since records began. The British Chambers of Commerce’s Q4 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey reveals that 45 % of SMEs now cite policy uncertainty as their single biggest barrier to investment, up from 38 % a year ago. Owners are sitting on cash rather than buying new vans, upgrading machinery, or hiring staff because they simply cannot predict what the next Budget will bring.
The 2025 Autumn Statement delivered yet another surprise: employer NI up to 15 %, VAT thresholds frozen, and no clarity on corporation tax beyond 2027. The Office for Budget Responsibility notes that this uncertainty alone reduces business investment by 0.3–0.5 % of GDP every year. For a small manufacturer in the Midlands, that means delaying a £80,000 CNC machine purchase. For a café chain in the South East, it means no new outlets. The ripple effect is devastating: fewer jobs, lower productivity, and a stagnating economy.
Large corporations have armies of advisers and lobbyists to navigate the fog. Small firms have spreadsheets and sleepless nights.
The solution is straightforward and costs nothing: mandate that every government publishes a credible, legally binding 5-year tax and regulatory forecast for SMEs before each Budget.
- Include projected rates for corporation tax, NI, VAT thresholds, business rates multipliers, and key compliance changes.
- Require an independent OBR assessment of the forecast’s realism.
- Make changes outside the forecast subject to emergency justification and parliamentary vote.
This is not radical. Germany publishes multi-year tax frameworks. Denmark provides five-year fiscal plans. Both nations enjoy higher SME investment rates and greater business confidence. In Britain, we used to have five-year spending reviews – we can revive the same discipline for taxesA clear 5-year forecast would restore confidence overnight. Businesses could plan, invest, hire, and grow again. The cost is zero. The benefit is billions in extra economic output.
Stop the surprises. Give SMEs the certainty they need to build Britain’s future.
The 1832 Club is fighting for these changes. The more members we have, the louder our voice in Westminster.
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